𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐋𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐞 (𝐨𝐫 𝐃𝐚𝐦) 𝐁𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐬
1,000 km upriver from Shanghai and the mouth of the Yangtze Delta sits a marvel of modern mega-engineering:
The Three Gorges Dam.
It might be about to collapse. What happens if it does?
Completed over twenty-one years (1994-2015) out of more than 28 million cubic meters of concrete and 463,000 tons of steel, the 185 meter tall Three Gorges Dam is today the largest hydroelectric dam on earth.
It generates around 2% of China’s total electrical power demand.
As far back as 1918, Chinese political leaders have promoted damming the Three Gorges due to the ever-present threat of catastrophic flooding up and down the Yangtze River.
In 1931, more than 300K people were killed by floods.
In 1954 and 1998, 3K+ perished in each year.
In 1982, Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping promised to make the Three Gorges Dam a reality.
By 1992, enough political support had been assembled for the project to be approved.
The groundbreaking was in Dec 1994, though it wasn’t until 1997 that the first concrete was poured.
The Three Gorges Dam has become a point of pride for the CCP.
Mega-engineering projects are a signal to the world that a nation has stepped into an elite tier of economic powerhouses.
For the CCP, it is further proof that authoritarianism is more effective than capitalism.
However, the project did not come without enormous costs.
The price tag has run more than $30 billion USD.
Choking off the sedimentary flow of the river reduces the available fertile silt required by farmland downstream, and increases risk of flooding.
All things considered, the Three Gorges Dam truly is a herculean feat of engineering, political willpower, and propaganda.
This despite the risks and challenges for the people of China – especially the more than 55 million people who live along the Yangtze downstream.
It’s beyond my ken to assess the structural risks and likelihood of failure for the TGD.
CCP officials are downplaying risk, because that’s what they do.
Now to the point of this thread – extrapolating the geopolitical/supply chain impact of failure of Three Gorges Dam.
We must first understand the importance of the Yangtze River in practical terms.
The watershed of the Yangtze is broadly divided into the Upper, Middle, and Lower Reaches.
Each reach is an industrial powerhouse, with specific economic and military significance.
The westernmost Upper Reach is anchored by Chongqing, a massive megacity-region of more than 30 million people.
As China’s west-facing #BeltandRoad gateway, Chongqing plays a critical role in connecting the Yangtze to Central Asia and Europe via rail – the “New Silk Road.”
The rail service – called “Chongqing-Xinjiang-Europe Railway” – stretches more than 11,000 km and traverses a number of Central Asian nations.
It is operated jointly by Chinese, Russian, and German logistics companies, and just departed its 10,000 train in March.
However, the CXE does not just serve Chongqing and Chengdu.
It connects cargo to China’s massive central/eastern industrial base via the Yangtze River’s container-on-ship service.
This subsidized, shorter routing cuts transit time to Wuhan from Europe by 10-14 days.
This two-way multimodal service was a safety valve for the central China industrial region (centered in Wuhan) when ocean and air cargo service ground to a halt at the onset of COVID-19.
Trucks travelled to Chongqing, with cargo moving to Europe on the CXE.
While Chongqing is the westernmost cargo hub on the Yangtze, it is closely connected via the river to the Port of Shanghai some 1,400 km away.
At Chongqing, all ocean-bound exports to/from western China are consolidated, numbering more than 1,000,000 containers/yr.
Further, the ASEAN nations have become critical trade partners with Chongqing/W.China, as traffic along the New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor has exploded.
This China-Singapore joint venture has seen almost 2,000 container trains move since 2017.
It is clear that the CCP views connecting China’s western provinces to the world through Chongqing as a major strategic initiative.
And while rail is the primary mode to achieve this, it is the freight carrying capacity of the Yangtze that makes the project possible.
Eastward from Chongqing, we come to the Yangtze’s Middle Reach, home to the Three Gorges Dam.
313km downriver from the dam sits Wuhan at the border of the Lower Reach.
It’s the most important interior city in China and a critical military, manufacturing, and tech hub.
In this article for @theammind, I explored the importance of Wuhan to China and global trade.
It is the central node of the Yangtze River’s logistics network.
A failure of the ports here means zero ocean container traffic upriver from the delta.
When China Sneezes…
How U.S. Supply Chains Caught A Cold.
The Port of Wuhan handles more than 1.5 mil containers/year, 50% more than Chongqing.
Wuhan’s Tianhe airport serviced more than 24 million passenger in 2018, and a little more than 220K MT of air cargo (equivalent to about 2,000 747’s).
It’s also the PPE hub of China.
So, let’s divert for a moment to what happens downriver if the Three Gorges Dam fails.
A 100m-tall wall of water will rush out at more than 100 km/hr.
In 30 minutes, Yichang and its 4 million residents will be engulfed.
(Map Credit: u/BerryBlue_BlueBerry @ Reddit)
Zero+1 hour, Jingzhou and 5.7 million people will be swept away.
Zero+5, the major industrial city of Yueyang (5.5 mil people) will sit 5m underwater.
Zero+10 hours, Wuhan (11 mil people) will face flooding of 6-8m in all major industrial and port zones.
Zero+15 hours, Jiujiang (another major PPE hub with 4.7 mil residents) will be hit with several meters of flooding. All cropland and infrastructure will be flooded and damaged.
Zero+24 hours, Shanghai’s neighboring city of Nanjing will see its port crippled.
Note, the Yangtze watershed is massive, but Biblical levels of rain have been flooding western and central China for weeks.
There simply is nowhere for the water to go, except outwards towards the East China Sea, and the world’s largest port of Shanghai.
Circling back now to Wuhan and the impacts to supply chains…
Ports along the Yangtze saw more than 19.4 million TEU (standard unit of container measure, “twenty foot equivalent unit”) in cargo traffic in 2019.
By comparison, Shanghai handled 42 million TEU in 2019.
In simple terms, the Yangtze River logistics and manufacturing complex comprises 46% of the volume of the largest port on earth, since all cargo flows through Shanghai.
Failure of the Three Gorges Dam would annihilate the entire logistics infrastructure of central China.
The Yangtze River east of the dam bases many PLA anti-air, ballistic missile, and PLA Air Force assets.
Several entities (Taiwan included) have speculated openly about the ability to strike the dam with missiles and cause massive downstream devastation.
Such an unlikely attack on the dam would no doubt trigger immediate reprisal by the CCP and PLA.
But what happens if the dam naturally fails due to excessive water and engineering flaws?
How does China respond, and how do foreign companies recover manufacturing capacity?
From an economic/military standpoint, all activity on the Yangtze would halt.
The rescue and recovery efforts will be enormous, taking months to complete, and only after the waters recede.
Peak water levels may not crest until August…and Yangtze ports are already slowed.
The Yangtze River Economic Basin has a GDP of more than $6.5 trillion, or about half of all China’s GDP.
Recall, China represents 28% of all manufacturing output – globally. More than half of that is in the YREB.
15% of the world’s production would go offline in 24 hours.
A wipeout of the Yangtze River would further cripple the already-congested Port of Shanghai, slowing vessel rotations to other Chinese and Asian ports by days or weeks.
Food imports – a critical item for China – would be slowed as refrigerated containers are bottlenecked.
A slowdown at Shanghai would place additional pressure on the northern ports of Tianjin and Qingdao, and central/southern ports like Ningbo, Xiamen, and Yantian.
More manufacturers will offshore from China to SE Asia, creating more chokepoints.
China’s central banking system, already cracking under the pressure of COVID-19 and the trade war, will not be able to help domestic companies recover fast enough.
The CCP will not be able to keep subsidizing production in attempt to keep the economy growing.
The middle reach of the Yangtze River is also China’s main agriculture production zone, where the crops are enaring harvest.
African Swine Fever rages on.
Famine will follow without huge imports of protein from the US, Europe, and S. America.
China makes its largest ever purchase of U.S. corn
Far behind on its “phase one” commitments with the United States, China bought 1.76 million tonnes of U.S. corn, its largest purchase ever. of American corn.
China’s central and northern region water supply – especially in Beijing – is dependent on the Yangtze.
Additionally, given that 2% of China’s electricity is produced by the dam, recovery of the industrial base in the YREB would be crippled due to energy shortfalls.
The lingering health effects associated with so many dead or sick from the flooding will crush the already-strained health services in the region, which are still trying to recover as the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic.
And…it gets worse.
It’s the habit of authoritarian regimes to deflect from domestic disasters by lashing outward to external enemies or entities.
It is thus a certainty that a failure of the dam will be painted as enemy action – likely pointing the finger at the US and/or Taiwan (recall #26).
Within days, the CCP/PLA will start saber-rattling.
Harrassment of US and allied naval assets, wargames involving intermediate-range ballistic missiles, rhetoric aimed at Taiwan, etc.
This will spill over into major disruptions of the East and South China Seas.
Commercial shiplines (such as Maersk, MSC, CMA-CGM) and their import customers in North America will see increased transit times as non-China transshipment ports take on add’l volume and vessels redirect around the contested waters.
As with COVID-19, the system will buckle.
Many companies in Europe and North America still recovering from the supply chain shock earlier this year will close down, ratcheting up anti-CCP sentiment further.
All of these factors combined will nearly guarantee open conflict between the US and China.
So what does a failure of the Three Gorges Dam look like?
It would be among the most horrific humanitarian crises in memory, triggering a cascade effect of famine, war, and economic depression that will threaten global peace.
For just one example of how we need to build proactive solutions to address China’s increasingly unstable house of cards, see @SecStudiesGrp’s proposal to support the Philippines in rebuilding Subic Bay into a logistics and manufacturing powerhouse.
Blunting a Rampant China’s Threat to Southeast Asian Shipping – Security Studies Group
A bold plan to repurpose a turnkey Free Trade Zone at Subic Bay. […]Read More…
For more detailed analysis on China’s naval and missile programs, as well as their geopolitical moves in the South China Sea and at Diego Garcia, see this thread and the ones embedded within:
There’s no video. Of course there isn’t.
Hard to really take the US seriously at this point.
A sobering assessment of America’s economic health by a former Director of the Office of Budget and Management (OBM). Whether you agree or disagree with his analysis, it’s worth a listen:
Quoth David Stockman:
The trade war with China is aimed at the wrong problem: it’s not bad trade deals or even nefarious activities by the Chinese state, the problem is bad money – this tremendous money-pumping that the Fed has done over the last 20 or 30 years, which has really undermined the Main Street economy and caused production and good jobs to shift offshore.
At the federal level, we now have [$]22 trillion of debt… If you take households that have 15 and a half trillion of debt, business that has about 14, you take the federal government, state and local, and then financial institutions, the total debt in our society today is $70 trillion, sitting up there on top of a GDP that’s barely 20 trillion. So we have three and a half times as much debt as we have income, and if you look at history… that is off the charts, that is a warning sign that this system is not sustainable. When we had a healthy economy, pre-1971, we had in fact a whole century of good economic prosperity and progress, from 1870 to 1970, the average debt-to-GDP ratio for the whole economy was 150%, not 350%.
Brother, can you spare a dollar?
A new report from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance’s (ILSR) finds that dollar stores tend to target rural and low-income neighborhoods, many of which are considered “food deserts,” meaning they lack access to fresh, affordable food.
“Essentially what the dollar stores are betting on in a large way is that we are going to have a permanent underclass in America,” Garrick Brown, the director for retail research at the real-estate firm Cushman & Wakefield, told Bloomberg in 2017. […]
As dollar stores grow increasingly popular, they’ve become an alternative to America’s biggest retailers, including Walmart, Costco, Walgreens, and CVS.
In the US, dollar stores are now feeding more people than Whole Foods. Their numbers have surpassed the combined total of Walmart and McDonald’s locations.
In 2016, the chain store Dollar General purchased 41 Walmart Express stores that were forced to shut down, despite operating on a similar model.
Though Dollar General isn’t a dollar store in the traditional sense (it sells items that cost more than $1), it’s often the only place to buy cheap groceries in isolated communities.
Clearly I need to revise my vision of the future:
- Thesis: Dollar Store America
- Antithesis: The United States of Bezos
- Synthesis: A fully automated Bezos Dollar Store empire, with a jobless, UBI-collecting population fed by delicious, nutritious packaged foods whisked to their door by Amazon Prime Drones
Social collapse intensifies as US life expectancy drops for the third year in a row:
Life expectancy in the United States declined again in 2017, the government said Thursday in a bleak series of reports that showed a nation still in the grip of escalating drug and suicide crises.
The data continued the longest sustained decline in expected life span at birth in a century, an appalling performance not seen in the United States since 1915 through 1918. That four-year period included World War I and a flu pandemic that killed 675,000 people in the United States and perhaps 50 million worldwide.
Public health and demographic experts reacted with alarm to the release of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s annual statistics, which are considered a reliable barometer of a society’s health. In most developed nations, life expectancy has marched steadily upward for decades.
Life expectancy for men declined year-on-year, while that of women remained the same. Women enjoy 5 more years of life than men. Kirsten Gillibrand is right!
Overall, Americans could expect to live 78.6 years at birth in 2017, down a tenth of a year from the 2016 estimate, according to the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics. Men could anticipate a life span of 76.1 years, down a tenth of a year from 2016. Life expectancy for women in 2017 was 81.1 years, unchanged from the previous year.
The growing drug epidemic has claimed more lives in one year than the total US combat deaths in World War I:
Drug overdoses set another annual record in 2017, cresting at 70,237 — up from 63,632 the year before, the government said in a companion report. The opioid epidemic continued to take a relentless toll, with 47,600 deaths in 2017 from drugs sold on the street such as fentanyl and heroin, as well as prescription narcotics. That was also a record number, driven largely by an increase in fentanyl deaths.
China is the main source of the illicit fentanyl in the US, raising an interesting parallel to the illegal opium trade which devastated Chinese society during the 19th and early 20th centuries.
Linus Torvalds, the famously surly creator of the Linux operating system, has been persuaded (pressured?) to grovel and step aside from the open-source project for the sin of… being rude.
The Linux community is probably the closest thing to a pure meritocracy that has ever existed on this earth. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Linux kernel powers every Android device on the planet, as well as most supercomputers, Amazon, Google, the New York Stock Exchange, the Japanese high-speed rail system and the US nuclear submarine fleet.
This is not hard to understand. A society that throws its geniuses under the bus to cater to the ever-changing whims and feelings of the mediocre, will rapidly cease to enjoy the benefits of genius. Once that happens, not only will progress grind to a halt, but the complex machinery of civilization will begin to fall apart, as the genius-hostile society loses the ability to solve large-scale problems.
Only a society in the grip of terminal madness would kill the golden goose because it was rude to the other geese.
Professor Peter Turchin explains his observation that the well-being of Americans has been declining over the last four decades — a process called immiseration:
Last year I had an interesting conversation with someone I’ll call the Washington Insider. She asked me why my structural-demographic model predicted rising instability in the USA, probably peaking with a major outbreak of political violence in the 2020s. I started giving the explanation based on the three main forces: popular immiseration, intra-elite competition, and state fragility. But I didn’t get far because she asked me, what immiseration? What are you talking about? We’ve never lived better than today. Global poverty is declining, child mortality is declining, violence is declining. We have access to the level of technology that is miraculous compared to what previous generations had. Just look at the massive data gathered together by Max Rosen, or read Steven Pinker’s books to be impressed with how good things are.
There are three biases that help sustain this rosy view. First, the focus on global issues. But the decrease of poverty in China (which is what drives declining global poverty, because Chinese population is so huge), or the drop in child mortality in Africa, is irrelevant to the working America. People everywhere compare themselves not to some distant places, but to the standard of living they experienced in their parents home. And the majority of American population sees that in many important ways they are worse off than their parents (as we will see below).
Second, the Washington Insider talks to other members of the 1 percent, and to some in the top 10 percent. The top-income segments of the American population have done fabulously in the last decades, thank you very much.
Third, many economic statistics have to be taken with a grain of salt. […]
So what has been happening with the well-being of common, non-elite Americans? In my work I use three broad measures of well-being: economic, biological (health), and social.
-Economic: Wages of non-elite workers show “rapid, almost linear growth to the late 1970s, stagnation and decline (especially for unskilled labor) thereafter”; the “relative wage” (the nominal wage divided by GDP per capita) drops sharply after 1960; labor participation has been trending downward regardless of education level since at least the late 1970s.
-Biological: Average height of native-born Americans stopped growing after the 1980s (and has declined for some demographic groups); life expectancy growth has lagged behind Western Europe and for some groups, life expectancy has declined in absolute terms; suicide rates are climbing for all ethnic groups.
-Social: Average age of marriage and percentage of people unmarried are on the rise.
Remember when the original Star Wars came out? That was around the historic peak of American economic, social and biological well-being. Hard times are coming, and for an increasing number of people, have already arrived.
Every age has its rituals. In the Age of Google, we have the Ritual of the reCAPTCHA, a compulsory visual test that requires a carbon-based organism to prove its sentience to a computer by selecting squares that seem to contain grainy images of a specified object. The organism must do this correctly in order to demonstrate to the computer’s satisfaction that it (the organism) possesses the mental faculties of invariant recognition, segmentation, and parsing, in which attributes humans tend to excel over computers. If the organism passes the test, it is permitted to continue with its intended task on the website.
That problem is that many human beings who are more or less sentient find the average reCAPTCHA to be hard and frustrating, owing to the intentionally crappy quality of the images, poor visibility of the objects, as well as certain definitional problems that the average internet user is ill-equipped to deal with. For example, should the user, tasked with identifying “street signs,” click on a square that contains part of a sign post? Then there are questions of process. Does the user click Verify immediately after clicking all the relevant squares, or wait for new images to materialize in the squares that have been clicked? None of this is clear, none of it is explained. The user twists in a fog of doubt and confusion, and frequently fails the test.
The reCAPTCHA is the reductio ad absurdum of modern life, a grudging surrender of countless man-hours of labor (over 100 million reCAPTCHAs are displayed every day) to feed the ravenous maw of an emerging artificial superintelligence. Because, of course, by completing these image recognition tasks, the human user is training Google’s vast machine learning datasets. TechRadar thanks you for your service in helping develop self-driving cars.
But while we are training Google’s neural networks, the machines are simultaneously training us — teaching us to be more compliant, more deferential to the machines, and more conversant in machine logic… in short, remaking humanity in their own image. The future is a slouched hominid clicking on a fuzzy image of a taco shop — forever.
Novelist Steve Hely points our attention to a fake Warren Buffett account on Twitter that somehow managed to rack up more than a quarter of a million followers while dispensing such insipid pieces of advice as “read and write more” and “you are not your job.” In a series of ridiculous tweets that captivated the entire internet, Fake Buffett guides us through the vicissitudes of life, offering his thoughts on “what’s cool” (saying thank you and holding doors open are cool), and serving up specially tailored “advice for the all the young people” [sic]. The account was suspended for being fake after just a few days of tweeting, but not before garnering approving retweets and likes from some of the biggest personalities in the media and entertainment world.
Many of these people apparently thought the advice was coming from the real Buffett, but putting aside the issue of their gullibility, it’s rather amazing how huge of a market there is for platitudes that would look lame even on a motivational poster. Fake Buffett may have been short-lived, but his legacy will endure as a window into the tragic mental landscape of the modern American.
The rate of seniors filing for bankruptcy has tripled since 1991. The elderly have little financial cushion in the event of catastrophic health problems, and of course medical costs are rising. And more people are entering retirement age with debt.
More people are living in their cars as homelessness rises in America. “The problem is ‘exploding’ in cities with expensive housing markets, including Los Angeles, Portland and San Francisco, according to Governing magazine.”
Outstanding education debt in the US now exceeds $1.5 trillion (roughly the GDP of Australia), after tripling over the last decade, and more than one million student loan borrowers go into default each year.
The average American works longer hours than a medieval peasant: “Juliet Shore, economist, told the site that during periods of high wages, such as 14th-century England, peasants worked no more than 150 days a year.”