China’s population begins to shrink

Beijing traffic jam

Welcome news for some

China’s population is believed to have shrunk last year for the first time since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949. Despite the loosening of the one-child policy in 2016 to allow for two children per couple, new findings from a researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison indicate that China’s population dropped by 1.27 million in 2018. The number of live births nationwide dipped by 2.5 million last year, after being projected to grow by 790,000. Thus, China is on track to get old before it gets rich.

This is most alarming:

The number of women of childbearing age is expected to fall by more than 39 percent over the next decade and China’s two-child policy isn’t enough to shore up dwindling birth rates, [Yi Fuxian] added.

That is an absolutely colossal decline in 10 short years. For reference, a Chinese newspaper gives the total number of women of childbearing age (15 to 49 years old) as 346 million. If we apply Yi’s 39% reduction to this figure, that would mean a net removal of almost 135 million women from the childbearing population. That’s more than the whole population of Japan. In a decade!

He is now urging the government to get out of people’s bedrooms by scrapping the two-child limit and offering more incentives including generous maternity leave and tax breaks for parents.

If the government doesn’t intervene now, “China’s aging crisis will be more severe than Japan, and the economic outlook will be bleaker than Japan,” Yi said.

China’s labor force is becoming smaller as the population grays, putting intense strain on the country’s fragile pension and health care systems.

[…]

“The U.S. economy will not be overtaken by China, but by India, which has a younger population,” he said.

“China’s economic vitality will continue to decline, which will bring about a disastrous impact on the global economy.”

Ditching the two-child limit would be most welcome. It’s questionable, however, whether pro-natalist incentives like maternity leave can make a significant dent in the problem. Chinese women have to really want children.

Here’s an insight from the financial blogger Luo Zhen (罗臻) way back in August 2013:

Consider the bigger picture. China is urbanizing and one plan for keeping growth from collapsing to near 0-3% is to push more people into cities. The fertility rates in the cities is already low by choice. China increasingly looks like Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore, where the fertility rates are 1.1, 1.1 and 0.8 children born/woman, respectively. China’s fertility rate is currently about 1.6 children born/woman.

If they want to raise fertility, they should deurbanize. China’s fertility rate is headed lower, one child policy or not.

There’s an idea: deurbanization. Perhaps it’s time to ease back on the crazy city-building drive and start ushering people back to the countryside. It’s been done before, sort of: China sent roughly 17 million youths to the countryside during the Cultural Revolution.

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