Mark Kern’s thinking about the global economic shocks being set in motion by the coronavirus outbreak is likely to prove prophetic, even if the virus itself doesn’t morph into a devastating pandemic:
CNN 3 days ago: It’s just the flu bro.
CNN today: It’s a full blown global emergency.
I think the risk in US is still low. If the graph starts to climb next week (which would be after the 14 day incubation period following Chinese New Year Travel), then we’ll see.
People think in linear terms. We aren’t wired for exponential curves…they are non intuitive in everyday thinking.
The grains of rice on a chessboard example is mind blowing to most.
Not many considered the economic problem as well. I started talking about it many days ago..the shutdown of cities and factories in China affecting global supply for raw materials, processed materials and electronic component supply.
You’re only starting to hear the press now.
There is also the terrible problem of all those shut down cities with people who can’t go to work, open their shops. And food. Things can get very ugly fast when the supply chains for food get disrupted to these large cities.
We really need to all work together on this one, and we should have acted much faster.
Instead the WHO sat on their hands, and no China rep was ever on hand during press conferences. Travel needed to be shut down during Lunar New Year, when millions flew, not 10 days later.
China is huge and wealthy, but that just means the logistical problems are beyond the scope of any single nation, even China. They need to be more open and we need to figure out ways to help everyone trapped in these quarantined cities as a single world problem.
He also points to this article in the Straits Times:
Thanks to the coronavirus outbreak, working from home is no longer a privilege, it’s a necessity.
While factories, shops, hotels and restaurants are warning about plunging foot traffic that is transforming city centres into ghost towns, behind the closed doors of apartments and suburban homes, thousands of businesses are trying to figure out how to stay operational in a virtual world.
“It’s a good opportunity for us to test working from home at scale,” said Alvin Foo, managing director of Reprise Digital, a Shanghai ad agency with 400 people that’s part of Interpublic Group.
Telecommuting? What a novel idea! Why not make it worldwide and permanent? But wait:
You can’t manufacture components at scale from home.
The coronavirus will be very damaging to the world economy.
ASUS is already having supply chain issues caused by “the prevailing situation in Asia”:
The economic damage the the US economy is currently more of a risk than infection and is already underway thanks to supply chain dangers of coronavirus.