Coronavirus appears to be forcing some US troops out of Iraq, a sign that America’s “forever war” in that country may be winding down after just 17 years of destructive and pointless conflict. Ironically, though, SARS 2.0 has inspired the launch of a new type of forever war: the indefinite suspension of society and commerce in the name of defeating a microbe. Call it the forever lockdown.
As with America’s misadventures in Afghanistan and Iraq, there is no clear end date for this gargantuan effort because the victory conditions are vague. On the one hand, we are told that the goal is to “flatten the curve.” But then Dr. Fauci, the immunologist who apparently believes he has been placed in charge of the United States, informs us that “social distancing” must continue until the virus is no more – which presumably means well into 2021 at the earliest:
Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that the novel coronavirus “might keep coming back” year after year. Speaking to the White House press corps on Wednesday, he said that the ultimate hope is a vaccine. That, Fauci added, may not be ready for a year to a year and a half, although other experts say even that timeline is optimistic.
“I was on the weekly conference call with the WHO-sponsored group of all the health leaders in the world who are dealing with this, and we all came to the agreement that we may have cycling with another season,” Fauci told the press conference. “We’ll be much better prepared. We’ll likely have interventions, but the ultimate game changer in this will be a vaccine.”
“If we get to the part of the curve where it goes down to essentially no new cases, no deaths for a period of time, I think it makes sense that you have to relax social distancing,” he added. “The one thing we hope to have in place, and I believe we will have in place, is a much more robust system to be able to identify someone who is infected, isolate them, and then do contact tracing.”
Fauci called for a national lockdown in a CNN interview:
Dr Anthony Fauci, the chief infectious disease expert leading the US response, echoed Mr Gates’s claims and said he doesn’t understand why states aren’t working together to tackle the virus.
Dr Fauci told CNN: “You know, the tension between federally mandated versus states’ rights to do what they want is something I don’t want to get into … But if you look at what’s going on in this country, I just don’t understand why we’re not doing that.”
Did someone mention Bill Gates? America’s wealthiest man, like Fauci, is calling for a complete national lockdown in almost comical language:
First, we need a consistent nationwide approach to shutting down. Despite urging from public health experts, some states and counties haven’t shut down completely. In some states, beaches are still open; in others, restaurants still serve sit-down meals.
This is a recipe for disaster. Because people can travel freely across state lines, so can the virus. The country’s leaders need to be clear: Shutdown anywhere means shutdown everywhere. Until the case numbers start to go down across America — which could take 10 weeks or more — no one can continue business as usual or relax the shutdown. Any confusion about this point will only extend the economic pain, raise the odds that the virus will return, and cause more deaths.
Gates is more generous with the expected timeline in an interview with the Khan Academy guy:
Even then, there will have to be limits. “It’s not normal. They don’t do sports events or big gatherings. That will wait until [we have] the vaccine, but we’d like — if things go well, and the numbers will drive it — we’d like to see that ability to open up somewhat by ideally early summer,” Gates said.
Large gatherings might have to be put on hold for as much as a year longer, to give time for adequate testing of a vaccine that can be administered worldwide. “It’ll take a while to get back into the ‘let’s go take a vacation, let’s go buy a new house’ type of mode,” Gates said.
Presumably, “large gatherings” include religious services, which have been banned in a number of states. Gates takes it for granted that the US will simply do what he is urging. We’ll see about that. In any case, he is smart enough to recognize and acknowledge what this would mean for American prosperity:
That more cautious mindset seems likely to lead to “the biggest shrinkage of GDP in any of our lifetimes,” Gates said. “We are in uncharted territory. … Eventually the economy will be bigger than it was before we got into this, but the shrinkage we’re seeing in these few months is completely unprecedented, and there are human lives behind that,” he said.
The federal government plans to maintain social distancing guidelines until the end of April. But some states are going beyond that: Virginia’s stay-at-home order extends until June 10, while similar edicts in California and Maryland are indefinite.
Abroad, Australia’s PM is talking about extending the country’s lockdown for at least six months:
Mr Morrison has previously said such measures could be in place for six months, but he admitted that the restrictions could last much longer.
‘I said at least six months, it could be longer,’ he said.
‘What I am trying to do is make it very clear to those who think this can all be done in a couple of weeks, with the lockdown, as they call it, that that is not true.
‘I am the only leader in the world at the moment talking about a much longer time frame.
‘I am trying to get Australians to understand there is no quick fix.
“There is no quick fix” is the message that is increasingly coming from our elites. They are preparing us for a long, miserable and ruinous battle against the microbe, one which our economy, society, and political order are not likely to survive. The forever wars weakened and demoralized America. The forever lockdown, if actualized, will finish us off. Buckle up!