Experts in the field, though, are much less concerned about such a chilling scenario. They say that while a restriction on rare earth exports would have some immediate adverse effects, the US and the rest of the world would adapt in the long run. “If China really cuts off supply entirely then there are short term problems,” Tim Worstall, a former rare earth trader and commodities blogger tells The Verge. “But they’re solvable.”
Far from being an ace in the hole, it turns out rare earths are more of a busted flush.
The reasons for this are numerous, and span geography, chemistry, and history. But the most important factor is also the simplest to explain: rare earths just aren’t that rare.
They can be mined in other places, like Australia, India, Brazil, Canada, and the U.S. China only mines about 80% of the global supply (not the 95% we often hear about). The Mountain Pass mine in California is apparently up and running again. And all is right in the world.