Nobody could have predicted this

I, for one, am completely taken aback by the failure of the US to achieve a quick regime change in Venezuela:

In a country with more than 2,000 generals and admirals, only one top officer — who commands no troops — has pledged allegiance to Guaido. So have two colonels (a physician and a military attache in Washington). Guaido has said that he has privately been in touch with other officers and that more will follow. He doubtless is, and perhaps they will.

Still, Garcia’s capture and confession show how tough a task Guaido faces. […]

U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton recently offered to remove sanctions against military chiefs who join Guaido. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida repeated the offer, saying that if any of the top six military leaders defect, the U.S. will guarantee their immunity.

Longtime observers, however, say the generals doubt the promises will be kept. This is a major reason why the revolution isn’t moving as quickly as some had hoped when Guaido electrified the world on Jan. 23 with his declaration. This has led to impatience and finger-pointing. U.S. policy makers and those around Guaido — as well as leaders in Brazil and Colombia — are eyeing one another and worrying about failure. Officials in each camp have said privately they assumed the others had a more developed strategy.

Back in January, I pointed out:

The problem, of course, is that Maduro is the guy who actually has the power in Venezuela, whether the US recognizes him or not.

I’ll just reiterate my warning that war with Venezuela would be a comprehensive disaster. It looks like the US may not be able to dislodge Maduro with words, economic pressure, and covert shenanigans. Unfortunately, the US is ramping up its involvement by using the military to fly humanitarian aid close to the Venezuelan border. Maduro has rejected US aid on the grounds that it’s intended to foment regime change (which it is).

The stage is being set for a classic pointless and destructive intervention that nobody in the American public actually asked for. Let’s not go there.

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