America’s Belt and Road?

The US may be stepping up its game to counter China’s multi-trillion-dollar development strategy known as the Debt Trap Diplomacy–… sorry, the Belt and Road Initiative:

The US is preparing to create an agency that can invest up to $60bn in the developing world in an effort to counter what some in Washington describe as China’s use of debt to wage “economic warfare”.

In what observers say is the biggest shake-up of US commercial lending to developing countries in 50 years, the Overseas Private Investment Corporation will be folded into the new agency and allowed to invest in equity. At present Opic can invest only in debt, putting it at a disadvantage to European development finance institutions (DFIs).

Ray Washburne, president and chief executive of Opic, told the FT that China – by using what he called “loan-to-own programmes” – was “creating countries that have the shackles of debt around them”. That amounted to “economic warfare”, he said.

By more than doubling Opic’s lending ceiling to $60bn and allowing it to invest in equity, he said, it would be put on “an equal footing with other DFIs”.

According to the report, OPIC well be folded into the new agency, called the International Development Finance Corporation, and “The arrangement has been sold to the president.”

Of course, the US has other ways of creating potholes in China’s Belt and Road… This could get very interesting indeed. On a quasi-related note, China is ramping up its PR campaign in the US, according to Bloomberg reporter Jennifer Jacobs:

China Daily advertising supplement

Text of the full thread:

CHINA sends a message to Trump and Ambassador Branstad by taking over 4 pages of Des Moines Register. Advertising supplement has “news” on:

—China buying soybeans from South America due to “trade row”

—Xi Jinping’s “fun days in Iowa”

—“Beijing can set an example for the world.”

The advertisement, labeled as paid for by the “China Daily, and official publication of the People’s Republic of China” is like a 4-page tweet from the Chinese government. It calls the trade war with Trump the “fruit of a president’s folly.”

In 15 years of covering Iowa news, I cannot recall the Chinese making a play like this. Certainly unprecedented for China to take out a four-page advertisement in the DMR. [Emphasis added]

China uses this advertising format regularly—“news” inserts have appeared in Nepal, Australia, U.S., etc. per @kashishds, @lillebuen, @DavidMDrucker and others. Beijing seems to be talking straight to Trump with this Iowa ad on “China-U.S. economic interdependence.”

Newspaper advertorials are a relatively clunky way of getting the message out, and unlike, say, troll armies on social media, they aren’t plausibly deniable. Nevertheless, as much as Americans (and others) may roll their eyes at such obvious and heavy-handed PR efforts, the cumulative impact of China’s vigorous overseas messaging is likely to be non-zero.

That’s a good boy

Australian Trade Minister Steven Ciobo

Australian Trade Minister Steven Ciobo

The Australian government happily complies with China’s demand to keep the public in the dark about the terms of an infrastructure MOU between the two countries:

The Turnbull government has refused to release an agreement it signed with China covering the controversial “Belt and Road Initiative” infrastructure program on the grounds Beijing does not want it made public.

Trade Minister Steven Ciobo signed the memorandum of understanding last September for cooperation on building infrastructure such as roads, bridges and dams in third countries – including under the Belt and Road Initiative – during a visit to Beijing. […]

The MOU would be expected to state Australia’s conditions for cooperating with China – such as that projects are financially transparent, do not involve corruption, genuinely help other countries and do not burden them with unsustainable debt.

But the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has refused to release the agreement under the Freedom of Information Act.

Mr Ciobo told Fairfax Media that “both parties are required to agree to release the text of the MOU and China has not agreed to do so”.

Why all the secrecy? Is there some aspect of building roads, bridges and dams that needs to be concealed from the public? The comments to the article tend to indicate that the Australian people are *not* happy about this.

Daily links: Geopolitics and Tom Cruise

US teams up with Japan and Australia to invest in Asian infrastructure projects. China’s Belt and Road Initiative has competition.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announces $113 million in new technology, energy and infrastructure projects in emerging Asia as part of Trump’s “Indo-Pacific” strategy.

Generals from the rival Koreas meet at the border to ease military tensions.

But there’s still a long and difficult road ahead with North Korea. “Washington and Pyongyang, however, are not the only players. Racing against a clock of its own, Seoul will aim to drive Trump and Kim toward an early trilateral summit to declare an end to the Korean War as a first step toward peace, fueled by President Moon Jae-in’s determination to go down in history as the peacemaker.”

Professor Stephen Cohen points out that in early 1986, President Ronald Reagan met alone with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev for about two and a half hours, during which they discussed abolishing nuclear weapons, paving the way for the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty which was signed a year later.

Behind-the-scenes on Tom Cruise’s HALO jump from a C-17 military aircraft at 25,000 feet for the latest Mission: Impossible movie. HALO means high altitude, low open (i.e. the parachute is deployed at below 2,000 feet).

Reminds me of this incredible scene from Moonraker.

Tom Cruise is “our last remaining movie star.”