A fool and his money

Interesting post about how Joe Rogan got ripped off by accepting what would appear to be a no-brainer, $100 million deal with Spotify:

Daniel Ek, the CEO of Spotify, who just closed an exclusive deal with Rogan to move his show (audio and video) to the Spotify platform.

If the numbers are to be believed, it’s a steal of a deal for Spotify: for $100-$200mm they secured the largest podcast audience in the world.

I’m not exaggerating. Spotify’s market cap jumped by $3 billion in the 24h after the news of this deal broke.

The market saw what Rogan missed: Spotify took his oil. […]

By doing this deal, Rogan gives up control over his subscriber relationship. Any new audience he builds from here on out, he loses. His existing podcast feed will likely die as most people eventually unsubscribe due to inactivity.

If he goes back to being independent and ditches Spotify in 3 years, he has lost all of his new subscribers during that time, and some of his original subscribers as well.

It’s like Disney licensing their Disney+ content to Netflix. It might net a big one-time payout, but it completely erodes the business value that would otherwise accrue to them.

There’s more detailed analysis in the post. Worth reading if you are a “content creator.”