The end of tourism?

International tourism arrivals grew by nearly 6% last year to 1.4 billion, according to figures from the United Nations World Tourism Organization.

Experts at the UNWTO predict that by 2100, the entire planet will be like a giant international airport, with a permanent floating population of billions of backpackers camping out in every Brazilian beach, Thai village and Mongolian yurt, turning the world into an extension of Instagram.

Backpackers

That is, of course, if current trends continue. But what if they don’t? We take it for granted, but the ease and safety of global travel today is really unbelievable, relying as it does not only on technology, but also the low cost of fuel, geopolitical stability, the openness of many countries to tourism, and a global middle class that can afford to vacation abroad. The problem is, none of the above conditions are set in stone. A large-scale war, economic depression, or energy shock, among other possible disruptions, could trigger a collapse in international travel, perhaps marking the end of the era of mass global tourism.

Consider this item from last week:

Americans traveling to Europe will soon have to add a new item to their packing lists.

Starting in 2021, the European Union will require US visitors to get a pre-approved, visa-like travel pass issued by the European Travel Information and Authorization System.

The permit will cost about $7.90 and will have to be requested at least four days before the journey—making romantic last-minute jaunts to Paris impossible.

The new requirement is described as a “security check.” It may be just a minor hassle for travelers, but a continued tightening of visa rules in Europe and elsewhere could put a serious damper on tourist flows. And as one blogger comments: “This throws a wrench into international travel, but the bigger wrench will come when the EU collapses.”

Nationalism is on the rise, and it’s possible that many countries will develop a sudden allergy to foreign backpackers, especially as concerns grow about “overtourism.” In this context it’s interesting to note that Thailand has closed Maya Bay, made famous by the Leonardo DiCaprio movie movie The Beach, indefinitely, while the Philippines shut down the popular island of Boracay for a six-month cleanup last year – it reopened with strict limits on tourist numbers.

Another factor is the state of the “rules-based international order,” which looks increasingly wobbly at the moment. The US State Department warns its citizens to “Exercise Increased Caution” when traveling to China owing to the latter’s coercive “exit ban” policy – thus international travel between the world’s two largest economies is officially fraught with risk. The situation could get far worse if geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, and it goes without saying that a world war would pretty much destroy the tourism industry. And global conflict is on the rise.

The takeaway? Enjoy Boracay while you still can!

Daily links: Fentanyl and state failure

China is the main source of the insanely potent synthetic opioid fentanyl in the US, which killed more than 27,000 people in the 12 months through November 2017. “The biggest difficulty China faces in opioid control is that such drugs are in enormous demand in the US,” an official of China’s equivalent of the DEA is quoted as saying. The Opium Wars in reverse?

The trade deficit has sliced $457.2 billion off the US economy’s cumulative inflation-adjusted growth, or 14.33%, from the start of the recovery in mid-2009 through the first quarter of 2018, according to last week’s revised GDP figures. But we are told that trade deficits don’t matter.

Britain is probably not going to run out of food in the event of a “no deal” Brexit. Nevertheless, it’s interesting to note that the British government cannot guarantee food security for its people, and seemingly expects the food industry to take all the responsibility for stockpiling goods. Meanwhile, the food industry has absolutely no plans to do this.

A simulation models the release and spread of a moderately lethal and moderately contagious virus. It kills off 150 million people over the course of 20 months, including 15 to 20 million people in the US.

Over 100,000 Russians marched last month in the city of Yekaterinburg to mark the centennial of the slaughter of the Romanov imperial family by rabid Communists.

Duterte publicly destroys more than A$8 million worth of contraband luxury cars in the Philippines: