Preview of a blueprint of a vision

Guangzhou central business district

Guangzhou (Source)

…so to speak. I am referring to the news that the Chinese government will “unveil” a “blueprint” for the 11-city “Greater Bay Area” initiative in southern China, which is believed to contain the planet’s largest concentration of humans in a single urban area. The blogger Big Lychee weighs in:

The basic proposition is that you have a bunch of coastal cities clustered around a river delta/estuary, and if you do something (to be revealed on Feb 21, fingers crossed) it will start to perform a similar ‘powerhouse’ economic function as the Silicon Valley area around San Francisco Bay, or maybe the vast industrial region around Tokyo Bay, because an estuary is sort of like a bay. Voila – the world’s top bay area.

Regional geography types might point out that the Pearl River Delta is already performing such a function, with its vast swathes of factories, banks, sea ports, airports, power stations, residential areas, road and rail links, malls, schools, 7-Elevens, pet-grooming salons and everything else an economic dynamo needs.

Promoters of the concept excitedly insist that the extra yet-to-be-announced something can unlock the area’s great additional potential. They note that it is currently divided among a dozen or so municipal jurisdictions, whose mayors and other leaders compete with one another, and two of which are de-facto city states with their own currencies and laws, separated by international-style borders.

Linking a bunch of cities together into a seamless megalopolis is certainly a compelling idea, but the enormous amount of propaganda surrounding the extremely nebulous and inchoate Greater Bay Area concept suggests an ulterior motive. What that motive might be is astutely suggested by the blog:

Skeptics point out that while merging Guangzhou, Zhuhai, Shenzhen and other mainland cities’ planning and other functions might produce economies of scale and efficiencies, it is difficult, if not unconstitutional, to absorb Hong Kong and Macau into the Mainland this way.

Some fear the whole thing is a plot to subsume Hong Kong politically and economically within a bigger cross-border entity. Others suspect the idea is more psychological or symbolic – aimed at encouraging the idea or feeling that Hong Kong is just a part of something bigger. In other words, to dilute Hong Kong’s separate identity. As in ‘We will no longer be Hong Kong people, but Greater Bay Area people’.

That sounds about right. I guess we’ll find out. By the way, I love how Guangzhou is assigned the role of “a national central city” while flashy Shenzhen gets to be “a special economic region and an innovative city.” Poor Guangzhou. At least it’s visually interesting, and the Cantonese culture is great, if you’re into that sort of thing. (It’s also the Guangdong provincial capital.)

US hardware supply chain compromised by Chinese spies

Supermicro

Holy moly, this is huge. A unit of the People’s Liberation Army secretly inserted tiny, malicious microchips into motherboards that were manufactured in Chinese factories for the US-based company Supermicro. These motherboards were used in expensive servers supplied to Amazon, Apple, the Department of Defense, the CIA, and the US Navy, among others. From a Bloomberg Businessweek investigation:

During the ensuing top-secret probe, which remains open more than three years later, investigators determined that the chips allowed the attackers to create a stealth doorway into any network that included the altered machines. Multiple people familiar with the matter say investigators found that the chips had been inserted at factories run by manufacturing subcontractors in China.

This attack was something graver than the software-based incidents the world has grown accustomed to seeing. Hardware hacks are more difficult to pull off and potentially more devastating, promising the kind of long-term, stealth access that spy agencies are willing to invest millions of dollars and many years to get.

This is really bad.* Say goodbye to US reliance on Chinese components. It will take time to reorient the global supply chain, but the effort is already underway. This scandal, which has been known (of course) to the Obama and Trump administrations, will only strengthen the case for manufacturing sensitive technologies in the US.

[…] Over the decades, the security of the supply chain became an article of faith despite repeated warnings by Western officials. A belief formed that China was unlikely to jeopardize its position as workshop to the world by letting its spies meddle in its factories. That left the decision about where to build commercial systems resting largely on where capacity was greatest and cheapest. “You end up with a classic Satan’s bargain,” one former U.S. official says. “You can have less supply than you want and guarantee it’s secure, or you can have the supply you need, but there will be risk. Every organization has accepted the second proposition.”

In the meantime, Mike Pence accuses China of a host of sins including interfering in the US democratic process:

Vice President Mike Pence escalated Washington’s pressure campaign against Beijing on Thursday by accusing China of “malign” efforts to undermine President Donald Trump ahead of next month’s congressional elections and reckless military actions in the South China Sea.

In what was billed as a major policy address, Pence sought to build on Trump’s speech at the United Nations last week in which he alleged that China was trying to interfere in the pivotal Nov. 6 midterm elections. Neither Trump nor Pence provided hard evidence of Chinese meddling.

That’s not quite right, as Pence mentions, for example, the widely noted Chinese advertising supplement in Iowa. From the transcript:

And China is also directly appealing to the American voters. Last week, the Chinese government paid to have a multipage supplement inserted into the Des Moines Register –- the paper of record of the home state of our Ambassador to China, and a pivotal state in 2018 and 2020. The supplement, designed to look like the news articles, cast our trade policies as reckless and harmful to Iowans.

I pointed out this bit of propaganda on September 23, referencing a tweet by Bloomberg’s Jennifer Jacobs. Trump then tweeted about on September 26. Read my blog to see the future!

Pence also calls on Google to “immediately end development of the ‘Dragonfly’ app that will strengthen Communist Party censorship and compromise the privacy of Chinese customers.” More about Dragonfly here.

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*Only fair to link to Supermicro’s response to the Bloomberg piece:

SAN JOSE, Calif., October 4, 2018 — Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), a global leader in enterprise computing, storage, networking solutions and green computing technology, strongly refutes reports that servers it sold to customers contained malicious microchips in the motherboards of those systems.

In an article today, it is alleged that Supermicro motherboards sold to certain customers contained malicious chips on its motherboards in 2015. Supermicro has never found any malicious chips, nor been informed by any customer that such chips have been found.

Each company mentioned in the article (Supermicro, Apple, Amazon and Elemental) has issued strong statements denying the claims […]

A shift in rhetoric

North Korea propaganda poster

Source: libertyherald.co.kr

Another sign that the move toward a US-North Korea rapprochement may be more than just “a triumph of showbiz over substance,” as some would have it:

Nix the nuclear warheads, cue the doves.

The North Korean government is erasing much of its anti-U.S. propaganda following dictator Kim Jong-un’s forays onto the world stage.

Gone are the posters depicting the U.S. as a “rotten, diseased, pirate nation” and promising “merciless revenge” on American forces for an imagined attack on the totalitarian country.

In their place are cheery messages touting praising the prospects for Korean reunification and the declaration Kim signed in April with South Korean President Moon Jae-in promising “lasting peace,” according to reports.

Too early to tell where this may lead, of course, but it’s certainly a welcome development.